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Your odds of passing

Your win rate, your reward to risk and your risk per trade, run 2,000 times against the rules a firm publishes. Change the model and the same trading gives a different answer.

  • Target 10%
  • Max loss 6%
  • Daily loss 4%
  • Trailing until it locks
  • Min days 1

Sources for these rules on the Alpha Capital Group page

47%940 of 2,000 runs pass

  • pass 940
  • hit the max loss 1,060
  • hit the daily loss 0
  • unfinished after 120 trading days 0
The first 40 runs, trade by trade. The dashed green line is the 10% target and the solid line is the starting balance.

With these numbers a pass takes about 2.1 attempts, and a run that passes takes a median of 14 trading days.

$185to pass once: 2.1 attempts at the $87 list price of the $10,000 account. Resets, discounts and refunds are not counted. Full cost of each model

This works for 199 of the 443 models in the census (45 %): the ones that publish a target, a max loss and a drawdown type. Rules published in dollars are turned into a percentage of the size you pick. The rest are left out instead of guessed.

Every trade is independent and wins or loses a fixed amount, measured on the starting balance. Each phase starts from zero with the same loss limits. A run that reaches the target before the minimum days waits them out without trading. Time limits count five trading days in every seven. Consistency rules are not simulated, and a run still open after 120 trading days counts as unfinished. This is arithmetic on your own numbers, not a forecast and not advice.